Academy Trading Ideas Article

A Tribute to Satoshi and a Decrease in Hashrate on Bitcoin’s Halving Day: Crypto Market Daily

2020.05.12

Bitcoin’s third block reward halving occurred at 19:23 UTC on May 11, cutting the block reward to 6.25 BTC from 12.5 BTC. The first block in the new mining cycle was mined by Antpool, the second-largest mining pool by total computing power per the BTC.com Pools’ Hashrate Rank. 

More interestingly, the current largest mining pool, F2Pool, mined the last block (629,999) before Bitcoin’s third halving and added The New York Times Headline “NYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed’s Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue” to the block. This message is a tribute to Satoshi Nakamoto, who wrote The Times’ front-page headline in Bitcoin’s genesis block in 2009, which read: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.” 

The 15 largest mining pools are all seeing a hashrate decrease in the last 24 hours, with Poolin losing more than 30 percent of its hashrate. 

Bitcoin’s third halving has been impacting miners’ earnings. At present, the Bitcoin price and fixed mining costs remain unchanged — so the income of miners is cut nearly in half. 

Pool’s Hashrate Rank. Source: BTC.com

Moreover, Bitcoin hashrate is now about 120EH/s, as of press time (11:00 UTC). It has dropped significantly from its 24-hour high of 148EH/s. 

To sum up, the third halving is a severe test for BTC miners in the long run. Their return on investment has been largely decreased. Small miners may simply be out of the game soon. 

Last 24 hour Bitcoin hashrate change. Source: Coinwarz

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hashrate is running at 4.06EH/s — more than double the 1.33EH/s seen 24 hours ago. 

Since all three major proof-of-work coins (BTC/BCH/BSV) are mined using SHA256, miners have apparently switched to BCH and BSV mining in order to be more profitable after BTC’s halving. Given the historical correlation, the price of BCH has a good chance of increasing with the uptrend in hashrate. 

Last 24 hour Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hashrate change. Source: Coinwarz

Looking back at the last 24-hour price change per OKEx’s BTC Index price, Bitcoin first pulled up seven percent and then dropped nearly nine percent. It bottomed out before the halving occured. 

As of press time (11:00 UTC), Bitcoin is trading at $8,764.58 and is up 1.06 percent. 

Bitcoin SV (BSV) is leading large-cap cryptocurrencies with a 3.72 percent gain in the last 24 hours. 

OKEx Token Index Board (as of 11:30 UTC). Source: OKEx

OKEx BTC Quarterly Futures (BTCUSD20200626) has been in a consolidation area. An intra-day support level is sitting at $8,250 and mid-term support is near $7,700. The intraday resistance area to focus on is around $8,850. 

BTC may see another test to above $8,850 but significant volume is needed to avoid a false breakout. 

OKEx BTC Quarterly Futures (BTCUSD0626) 4H chart. Source: OKEx

Disclaimer: This material should not be taken as the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions. Trading digital assets involve significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should ensure that you fully understand the risk involved and take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary.


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