Academy Trading Ideas Article

Bearish Sentiment Invades Market Following Strange Bitcoin Transaction: Crypto Market Daily

2020.05.21

As of press time (11:00 UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $9,400 and is down 4.14 percent over the last 24 hours, per OKEx’s BTC Index Price

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is down 4.1 percent. BTC dominance is sitting at 66.3 percent and is down 0.4 percent, as per data sourced from CoinGecko.  

Large-cap cryptocurrencies have dropped slightly less than the market leader. Ethereum (ETH) is down three percent and EOS down 3.07 percent.  

OKEx Token Index Board (as of 11:00 UTC). Source: OKEx

Under OKEx Coin Info, THETA is the top gainer over the last 24 hours with a 30.55 percent return. This is the second day in a row that the altcoin has skyrocketed.  

CTC is the biggest loser over the last 24 hours — having lost 14.82 percent of its value. 

Top Gainers & Losers (USDT) for the last 24 hours. Source: OKEx

A mysterious Bitcoin transfer shook the market

Bitcoin pulled back and tested the support level at $9,300 yesterday. 

The movement was triggered by speculation that Satoshi’s coins were on the move — though some have pointed out the wallet in question likely belongs to an old-school miner. 

Nevertheless, a UTXO older than 11 years being spent on-chain definitely causes a stir in the market. 

Sentiment flipped bearish on the options market

The 25-day skew jumped to 21 percent after the price pullback, hitting the highest level since mid-March, per Skew’s data. This indicates that puts are more expensive than calls. 

Volatility Skew is the difference in implied volatility (IV) between out-of-the-money options, at-the-money options and in-the-money options. This pattern shows a sign of bearish sentiment, indicating that traders are buying protection and bringing puts in high demand. 

BTC 25d skew. Source: Skew

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

As we noted in our Market Watch Weekly, the Golden Cross formed by the 50-day moving average going above the 200-day moving average often works as a contradictory indicator. 

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin made a rapid decline in the early hours of the American trading session, hitting a low of $9,258 after a quick bounce — as per OKEx BTC Quarterly Futures (BTCUSD20200626) price. 

Though the $9,280 support level is still valid, the short-term trend has shown more bearishness. Trading volume has significantly amplified during the pullback. Therefore, the price of Bitcoin may have a great chance to test $8,800 — but it is risky to short near the $9,280 support. 

OKEx BTC Quarterly Futures (BTCUSD0626) 1H chart. Source: OKEx

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Ethreum (ETH) had a quick dip yesterday, following alongside Bitcoin. It also rebounded at a key support level ($205), per OKEx Ethereum Quarterly Futures (ETHUSD0626). We noted the importance of $205 in yesterday’s Crypto Market Daily

The selling volume of ETH was much higher than BTC. 

The next short-term resistance level is near $211, which is also the higher low after today’s rebound. 

Ethereum seems to be falling into a weak consolidation pattern, meaning traders will likely be cautious about opening longs. 

OKEx ETH Quarterly Futures (ETHUSD0626) 4H chart. Source: OKEx


Disclaimer: This material should not be taken as the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions. Trading digital assets involve significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should ensure that you fully understand the risk involved and take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary


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