Academy Trading Ideas Article

Bitcoin Traders Hesitant After Fed Corporate Bond Announcement: Crypto Market Daily

2020.06.16 Robbie Liu

Bitcoin (BTC) has undergone a V-shaped reversal on the hourly chart in the last 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency has bounced from $9,100 to $9,500 — a 4% gain, per OKEx’s BTC Index Price — and is still in sync with the United States stock market. 

The S&P 500 dropped lower pre-market yesterday before pumping in line with the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would be buying individual corporate bonds. It gained 0.8%, up to 3,066.59 points. The volatility index (VIX) fell yesterday, which could help Bitcoin regain its momentum.

bitcoin okex
Bitcoin Price (orange) vs. S&P Futures Price (blue) five-minute chart. Source: TradingView

Large-cap cryptocurrencies did not pick up the pace following Bitcoin’s rally. Only Ethereum (ETH) achieved a 4.4% return over the last 24 hours. We have seen many mid-cap coins realize 5% or more returns in the same time period. For example, IOST, ADA and LINK increased 9.8%, 9.76% and 7.62%, respectively. 

crypto prices
OKEx Token Index Board (as of 10:00 UTC). Source: OKEx

Top gainers and losers

  • SC/USDT +31.29%
  • RNT/USDT +28.03%
  • LET/USDT +27.47%
  • MOF/USDT -2.61%
  • RNT/USDT -4.71%
  • ROAD/USDT -5.12%

It was a good day for smaller-cap altcoins. Siacoin (SC) gained a huge 31.29%, along with RNT and LET each pumping around 28%. ROAD, meanwhile, is the biggest loser over the last 24 hours.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is up 4.5% and back to $270 billion. Bitcoin dominance increased 0.2% to 64.7% today, per data from CoinGecko.  

Retail traders are betting against the price reversal

As we pointed out in the last Crypto Market Daily, there were signs of a temporary cessation of selling pressure and multiple bullish divergences on various technical indicators. Now, Bitcoin’s price has recovered to last Friday’s trading range around $9,500. 

However, OKEx’s BTC Long/Short Ratio shows retail traders are betting against the current price rally. The ratio is still running around 0.88 and went to a recent low of 0.79 yesterday. After last Thursday’s market sell-off, traders appear to have little confidence in going long. 

okex btc long/short ratio
24h OKEx BTC Long/Short Ratio. Source: OKEx

OKEx’s BTC Top Trader Sentiment Index tells the same story, with 56% in short positions and 39% in long positions. However, betting against the Federal Reserve may not be a good idea. Traders may want to keep an eye on the opening bell of the U.S. stock market today. 

okex btc top trader sentiment index
24h OKEx BTC Top Trader Sentiment Index. Source: OKEx

Bitcoin technical analysis

The strength of Bitcoin’s rebound over the last 24 hours is greater than expected and we have seen a good amount of active buying. The price of Bitcoin went back to previous heavy trading areas — and this could lead to a period of consolidation. 

$9,450 could be seen as a new short-term threshold. If the price can hold above $9,450, it has a higher probability of a continued rise to test the $10,000 level again. 

btc usd chart
OKEx BTC Quarterly Futures (BTCUSD0925) 1H chart. Source: OKEx

Ethereum technical analysis

Ethereum’s rebound is still ongoing. Intraday resistance is around $237. If Bitcoin could test $10,000 in the midterm, Ethereum would have a good chance to test $242. 

$229 is still the critical support level, which is far from the current trading range. 

eth usd chart
OKEx ETH Quarterly Futures (ETHUSD0925) 1H chart. Source: OKEx

Disclaimer: This material should not be taken as the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions. Trading digital assets involve significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should ensure that you fully understand the risk involved and take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary

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