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BTC Volatility Remains Low Following First US Presidential Debate

2020.09.30 Robbie Liu

Today's edition of OKEx Insights' Crypto Market Daily covers Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins and DeFi.

The first United States presidential election debate ended early this morning. Consequently, financial markets reacted sharply — U.S. bond rates moved down, the dollar rallied and U.S. stock futures declined. 

The price of BTC, on the other hand, wasn't impacted and is still hovering at around $10,700. Major altcoins were split — Bitcoin SV (BSV) surged 4.21%, but Polkadot (DOT) and Chainlink (LINK) fell 3.81% and 5.90%, respectively. 

The decentralized finance sector was trading down from yesterday, with two leading projects underperforming. Yearn.finance (YFI) lost 13% of its value after the hack of a new project, Eminence, which is a new project by yearn.finance's founder, Andre Cronje. Uniswap (UNI) is down 1.81% overnight and is still struggling near $4.10 levels. 

Top cryptocurrency prices - 9/30
OKEx's Token Index Board is split, as of 6:40 am UTC on Sept. 30. Source: OKEx

BTC volatility continues to stagnate at low levels. According to research by 21Shares, BTC's rolling volatility has been significantly lower than that of Tesla stock in September, though still higher than the S&P 500. Clearly, new market topics like decentralized finance are attracting more attention.

S&P 500, Tesla and Bitcoin volatility in September
 Rolling volatility over September of the S&P 500 Index, Tesla and Bitcoin. Source: Coin Metrics

Throughout September, despite having one last trading day to go, the price of BTC retraced about 7.64%, while Ether (ETH) plunged 18%. Traditional financial markets also faltered, with the S&P 500 Index down around 5.45% and the price of gold back below $1,900 per ounce after dropping 4%. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets remains high.

September returns for S&P 500, gold futures, Bitcoin and Ethereum
Returns over September of the S&P 500 Index, gold futures, Bitcoin and Ether. Source: TradingView

Top altcoin gainers and losers 

  • SUN/USDT +15.22%
  • TMTG/USDT +13.04%
  • TAI/USDT +11.40%
  • SFG/USDT -15.73%
  • RFUEL/USDT -26.09%
  • FLM/USDT -26.15%

TRON (TRX) ecosystem tokens generally outperformed the rest of the DeFi sector, with SUN and tBridge Token (TAI) rallying 15.22% and 11.40%. 

Two liquidity-mining reward tokens performed poorly. Flamingo (FLM) and S.Finance (SFG) were down 26.15% and 15.73%, respectively. 

The newly listed Rio DeFi (RFUEL) is trading back at its opening price of $0.14, after surging to as high as $0.40 at the beginning of its listing. 

BTC technical analysis

Looking at the mid-term pattern on the daily chart, BTC is still in an uptrend and the rising support line remains valid. Due to the low volatility, BTC is having a hard time breaking out of its consolidation range — with limited downside potential in the short-term and resistance around $11,000. Intraday support is located at $10,600. 

Bitcoin price chart - 9/30
OKEx's BTC Perpetual Swap 1d chart — 9/30. Source: OKEx, TradingView

ETH technical analysis

On the ETH daily chart, the selling volume at mid-month was significantly lower than at the beginning of the month. The dense trading zone above $368 may be difficult to break in the short term, while traders will watch the support level around $316.

Ethereum price chart - 9/30
OKEx ETH Perpetual Swap 1d chart — 9/30. Source: OKEx, TradingView

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Disclaimer: This material should not be taken as the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions. Trading digital assets involve significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should ensure that you fully understand the risk involved and take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary.


OKEx Insights presents market analyses, in-depth features, original research & curated news from crypto professionals. 

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