Academy Trading Ideas Article

Crypto Trader Who Predicted March Bear Market Shares Three Lessons for Newbies


Last week, OKEx completed its Derivatives Feedback Program, partnering with crypto traders to get direct, much-appreciated feedback on some of our newest products. 

Ash Davidson — one of the traders selected to participate in the program — sat down (virtually, of course!) with us to talk about the daily life of a crypto trader and what newcomers to the space need to know.

March 12-13 was very brutal for crypto and the markets have been shaky ever since. What is your perspective on this particular crash?

Ash Davidson: I actually predicted a drop down to $4,400 levels on March 1. It’s on my Twitter somewhere [here — OKEx]. I was more than ready, I released more equity out of some old profits to get ready for more investment ranges to be hit.

I had a gut feeling with COVID-19 that people would move crypto out to be safe, or to cover some losses in the stock market and it happened. 

It was rather violent and I think it made a few people sick looking back on Twitter at the time. I think my mindset is different from most as all I am using is profit and gains to use within the markets. But I couldn’t think how I would have reacted if I was new and it was fresh capital in the market… I’ve never seen anything like that.

Can you name 1-3 important things you’ve learned trading that you could share with crypto newcomers?

AD: Three things, erm. I could easily name 30 but let’s go with the most important.

  1. Leave your emotions at the door. Plan whatever investment or trade you are doing. Simple as that. Then let it play out. From how much you invest or put on a trade, how much you’re willing to lose if it goes wrong and how much you are ready to jump out with. Plans remove some of the emotion.
  1. Learn and TEST as much as you can before going live. If you have a method you like the look of that fits your lifestyle, use it but test it. I like to demo first, then I like to live trade with $10 to see what it is like live then I go from there over a period of 6-12 weeks. I spend about 3 weeks looking at the charts alone.
  1. Trust your own analysis over other people’s. Everyone is looking at the same thing or different things, have the edge and only look at your own charts not someone else’s.

When did you start trading crypto and why?

AD: I started investing in cryptocurrency in 2016. I had some prior experience trading in 2015 with football and penny stocks. In 2017, I started trading cryptocurrencies. I enjoyed the buzz, the fact that you can make a lot of gains in a short amount of time compared to the stock market. I haven’t looked back since.

Just Bitcoin or also altcoins? In general, do you prefer trading crypto derivatives or spot markets and why?

AD: I trade mainly derivatives. Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are what I mainly trade — trade to accumulate them. I feel those are the best ones to hold onto so in my eyes, getting more through trading isn’t a bad idea long-term. 

I used to trade altcoins but I got sick of having to always weigh up Bitcoin and dominance, plus the headache of a BTC pair or USDT. So I keep it simple now.

What does your typical day look like? How many hours a day are you trading? Do you have a day job?

AD: I have a very easy trade day. I don’t trade too often as I use the higher time frames to catch swing trades and the occasional positional hold to a much longer target. So I’d usually look at the daily closure and then go from there. 

I have all my charts mapped out and I just got to keep a small eye on key ranges. Then if they come into range I can act. I don’t understand people who scalp, too much effort. I like to keep nice and chilled. Throughout the day if I am waiting or babysitting a position, I do content for my YouTube or just for my company, for my students.

Ash Davidson is a UK-based crypto trader and educator. He has been in the game since 2017. You can follow him on Twitter @CryptoMobsterYT.

This interview has been edited for clarity.

Disclaimer: This material should not be taken as the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions. Trading digital assets involve significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should ensure that you fully understand the risk involved and take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary.