Academy Trading Ideas Article

Speculators Remain Cautious as Bitcoin’s Halving Effects Start to Show: Crypto Market Daily


As of press time (11:05 UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $9,600 and is up 1.13 percent over the last 24 hours, per OKEx’s BTC Index Price

Large-cap cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), are outperforming against Bitcoin — gaining 5.01 percent and 3.38 percent, respectively. 

OKEx Token Index Board (as of 11:30 UTC). Source: OKEx

The effects of Bitcoin’s halving are starting to show

The impact on BTC miners of the most-recent halving is starting to creep in, as some data has changed in the last week. 

According to Bitinfocharts, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped from 137.57E on May 11 to 85.8E on May 17. The estimated hashrate decline is 14.3 percent in 24 hours. As a result, the speed of transactions on the bitcoin network has slowed and transaction fees have soared. 

Bitcoin hashrate vs. price. Source: Bitinfocharts

The current Bitcoin fee-in-reward ratio has jumped to over 17 percent in the mid-week, which is the highest level since January 2017. And average transaction fee has climbed to as high as $5.16 on May 14, per Bitinfocharts’ data. 

Bitcoin Fee in Reward. Source: Bitinfocharts

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin got another rejection when testing $10,000 earlier today, proving the strength of the resistance above. Traders can focus on the $9,600 level, per OKEx BTC Quarterly Futures (BTCUSD20200626) price, which has proven to be effective support before.

OKEx BTC Quarterly Futures (BTCUSD0626) 1H chart. Source: OKEx

The 60-hour Moving Average (MA 60) is another line traders should pay attention to, which is sitting around $9,645.

Bitcoin is still expected to test $10,200 in the short term. 

Open Interest (OI) has accumulated to six million contracts from Saturday’s five million level. Meanwhile, the futures premium over spot is holding. Steady growth in OI looks healthy, indicating traders are speculating on relatively low leverages. 

Disclaimer: This material should not be taken as the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions. Trading digital assets involve significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should ensure that you fully understand the risk involved and take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary.

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